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Bowen Basin: Non–resident population projections, by local government area (LGA), 2018 to 2024

This table provides data to supplement the Bowen and Galilee Basins non–resident population projections, 2018 to 2024 report.

LGA(a) Projection series Non-resident population(b)
Estimated Projected
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
— number —
Banana (S)(c) Series A 710 730 720 730 730 730 730 730
Central Highlands (R)(d) Series A 3,360 3,230 3,110 3,110 3,050 3,000 3,000 3,000
Series B 3,360 3,390 3,160 3,230 3,140 3,070 3,200 3,360
Isaac (R) Series A 10,580 10,630 10,330 10,110 9,920 9,790 9,760 9,720
Series B 10,580 10,730 11,110 10,820 11,580 11,760 11,170 11,130
Series C 10,580 10,740 11,170 11,020 11,860 11,900 11,310 11,260
Series D 10,580 10,740 11,250 11,350 12,200 12,550 12,370 12,230
Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only)(e) Series A 490 380 370 340 340 350 350 350
Series B 490 450 1,170 1,040 1,040 950 660 400
Bowen Basin total(f) Series A 15,150 14,970 14,540 14,290 14,040 13,870 13,830 13,790
Series B 15,150 15,300 16,160 15,810 16,490 16,510 15,770 15,620
Series C 15,150 15,310 16,220 16,010 16,760 16,650 15,900 15,750
Series D 15,150 15,310 16,310 16,340 17,110 17,310 16,960 16,720
(R) – Regional Council  (S) – Shire
(a)  Boundaries are based on the 2016 edition of the Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS).
(b)  Represents the number of non-resident workers on-shift for 30 June of the indicated year. Temporary peaks and falls in project workforces may occur in between these mid-year estimates for successive years.
(c)  There are no Series B, Series C or Series D projections for Banana (S) in this edition.
(d)  There are no Series C or Series D projections for Central Highlands (R) in this edition.
(e)  Comprises the SA2s of Bowen and Collinsville, which cover the area of former Bowen (S). There are no Series C or Series D projections for Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only) in this edition.
(f)  Bowen Basin series totals are cumulative and take account of preceding series in each LGA.
 
Figures in this table have been rounded to the nearest 10; any internal discrepancies are due to rounding.
 
Explanatory notes
 
QGSO’s 2018 to 2024 non–resident population projections contain up to four different series, which represent a range of possible outcomes arising from the future development of resource projects and operations. Projections are based on information provided by industry regarding existing operations and future projects.
 
The four projection series are based on the standing of projects in the approvals pipeline at the time of preparation (December 2017). The projections also include some projects outside the approvals process.
Series A projection is based on the number of non-resident workers on-shift who were engaged in existing resource operations at June 2017. The projection takes account of future changes to those operational workforces as advised by company sources, as well as the estimated construction and operational workforces of Category A projects (i.e. those that are approved and have reached financial close).
Series B projection includes the Series A projection plus projected growth in the non-resident population arising from Category B projects (those that are approved but have yet to reach financial close).
Series C projection includes the Series A and B projections, plus the projected growth in the non-resident population arising from Category C projects (those that have lodged an EIS, but have yet to proceed through to final approval).
Series D projection includes Series A, B and C projections, plus the projected growth in the non-resident population from Category D projects (those that have yet to publish an EIS, including projects that have lodged an initial advice statement (IAS) as well as projects that have yet to begin the approvals process).
Where financial close for an approved project has been delayed indefinitely, or where it is not possible to give consideration to indicative workforce data or sequencing, the project is designated as Category E and is not included in any of the four projection series. Other projects that are dependent on Category E projects in order to commence are also designated as Category E, and excluded from consideration in the projections.
See Bowen and Galilee Basins non–resident population projections, 2018 to 2024 for further detail on methodology, caveats, and a full list of existing operations and future projects included in each projection series.
 
Users of these projections should note that there is a degree of uncertainty about the likelihood of these projects proceeding as assumed and, as such, the projections should be regarded as being indicative scenarios rather than probabilistic predictions. QGSO does not advocate any of the projection series as being the most likely or favoured outcome.
 
For further information please visit the QGSO website at www.qgso.qld.gov.au.
 
Source: Queensland Government Statistician's Office, Queensland Treasury, Non–resident population projections, 2018 to 2024
 
Copyright:  The State of Queensland (Queensland Treasury) 2018
 
Attribution: 
You are free to copy, communicate and adapt the work, as long as you attribute the authors. This document is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International licence.
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
To attribute these estimates, cite Queensland Government Statistician's Office, Queensland Treasury, Non–resident population projections, 2018 to 2024
 
Disclaimer: 
All data and information in this report are believed to be accurate and have come from sources believed to be reliable. 
However, Queensland Treasury does not guarantee or represent that the data and the information are accurate, up to date or complete, and disclaims liability for all claims, losses, damages or costs of whatever nature and howsoever occurring, arising as a result of relying on the data and information, regardless of the form of action, whether in contract, tort (including negligence), breach of statutory duty or otherwise.
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Last reviewed 2 March 2018