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Bowen Basin: Non–resident population projections, by local government area (LGA), 2019 to 2025

This table provides data to supplement the Bowen and Galilee Basins non–resident population projections, 2019 to 2025 report.

LGA(a) Projection series Non-resident population(b)
Estimated Projected
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
— number —
Banana (S)(c) Series A 1,150 1,140 1,090 1,090 1,090 1,090 1,090 1,090
 
Central Highlands (R)(d) Series A 4,050 3,700 3,600 3,530 3,530 3,600 3,600 3,600
Series B 4,050 3,720 3,690 3,550 3,570 3,800 3,740 3,720
 
Isaac (R)(e) Series A 12,080 10,250 10,730 10,530 10,210 10,360 10,100 10,100
Series B 12,080 10,450 11,790 11,940 11,600 12,420 12,220 11,260
Series C 12,080 10,600 12,410 12,380 11,900 12,720 12,520 11,560
 
Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only)(f) Series A 1,140 600 720 500 480 480 480 480
Series B 1,140 600 960 1,000 1,230 1,330 1,170 560
 
Bowen Basin total(g) Series A 18,410 15,700 16,140 15,640 15,310 15,530 15,260 15,260
Series B 18,410 15,910 17,530 17,590 17,490 18,640 18,220 16,640
Series C 18,410 16,060 18,150 18,030 17,790 18,940 18,520 16,940
Series D 18,410 16,060 18,200 18,120 17,880 19,370 19,500 17,590
(R) – Regional Council  (S) – Shire
(a)  Boundaries are based on the 2016 edition of the Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS).
(b)  Represents the number of non-resident workers on-shift for 30 June of the indicated year. Temporary peaks and falls in project workforces may occur in between these mid-year estimates for successive years.
(c)  There are no Series B or Series C projections for Banana (S) in this edition. Series D projections for Banana (S) are included in the Series D projections for the Bowen Basin, but are not published at the LGA level in order to preserve data confidentiality.
(d)  There are no Series C projections for Central Highlands (R) in this edition. Series D projections for Central Highlands (R) are included in the Series D projections for the Bowen Basin, but are not published at the LGA level in order to preserve data confidentiality.
(e)  Series D projections for Isaac (R) are included in the Series D projections for the Bowen Basin, but are not published at the LGA level in order to preserve data confidentiality.
(f)  Comprises the SA2s of Bowen and Collinsville, which cover the area of former Bowen (S). There are no Series C or Series D projections for Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only) in this edition.
(g)  Bowen Basin series totals are cumulative and take account of preceding series in each LGA.
 
Figures in this table have been rounded to the nearest 10; any internal discrepancies are due to rounding.
 
Explanatory notes
 
QGSO’s 2019 to 2025 non–resident population projections contain up to four different series, which represent a range of possible outcomes arising from the future development of resource projects and operations. Projections are based on information provided by industry regarding existing operations and future projects.
 
The four projection series are based on the standing of projects in the approvals pipeline at the time of preparation (December 2018). The projections also include some projects outside the approvals process.
Series A projection is based on the number of non-resident workers on-shift who were engaged in existing resource operations at June 2018. The projection takes account of future changes to those operational workforces as advised by company sources, as well as the estimated construction and operational workforces of Category A projects (i.e. those that are approved and have reached financial close).
Series B projection includes the Series A projection plus projected growth in the non-resident population arising from Category B projects (those that are approved but have yet to reach financial close).
Series C projection includes the Series A and B projections, plus the projected growth in the non-resident population arising from Category C projects (those that have lodged an EIS, but have yet to proceed through to final approval).
Series D projection includes Series A, B and C projections, plus the projected growth in the non-resident population from Category D projects (those that have yet to publish an EIS, including projects that have lodged an initial advice statement (IAS) as well as projects that have yet to begin the approvals process).
Where financial close for an approved project has been delayed indefinitely, or where it is not possible to give consideration to indicative workforce data or sequencing, the project is designated as Category E and is not included in any of the four projection series. Other projects that are dependent on Category E projects in order to commence are also designated as Category E, and excluded from consideration in the projections.
See Bowen and Galilee Basins non–resident population projections, 2019 to 2025 for further detail on methodology, caveats, and a full list of existing operations and future projects included in each projection series.
 
Users of these projections should note that there is a degree of uncertainty about the likelihood of these projects proceeding as assumed and, as such, the projections should be regarded as being indicative scenarios rather than probabilistic predictions. QGSO does not advocate any of the projection series as being the most likely or favoured outcome.
 
For further information please visit the QGSO website at www.qgso.qld.gov.au.
 
Source: Queensland Government Statistician's Office, Queensland Treasury, Non–resident population projections, 2019 to 2025
 
Copyright:  The State of Queensland (Queensland Treasury) 2019
 
Attribution: 
You are free to copy, communicate and adapt the work, as long as you attribute the authors. This document is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International licence.
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ 
To attribute these estimates, cite Queensland Government Statistician's Office, Queensland Treasury, Non–resident population projections, 2019 to 2025
 
Disclaimer: 
All data and information in this report are believed to be accurate and have come from sources believed to be reliable. 
However, Queensland Treasury does not guarantee or represent that the data and the information are accurate, up to date or complete, and disclaims liability for all claims, losses, damages or costs of whatever nature and howsoever occurring, arising as a result of relying on the data and information, regardless of the form of action, whether in contract, tort (including negligence), breach of statutory duty or otherwise.
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Last reviewed 20 May 2019