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Surat Basin: Non–resident population projections, by local government area (LGA), 2017 to 2023

This table provides data to supplement the Surat Basin non–resident population projections, 2017 to 2023 report.

LGA(a) Projection series Non-resident population(b)
Estimated Projected
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
— number —
Maranoa (R)(c) Series A 1,280 1,190 1,060 1,020 1,020 1,020 1,020 1,020
Series B 1,280 1,370 1,230 1,080 1,080 1,080 1,370 1,690
Toowoomba (R)(d) Series A 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90
Series B 90 190 240 100 100 110 110 110
Western Downs (R)(e) Series A 2,460 2,270 2,050 2,030 2,030 2,030 2,030 2,030
Series B 2,460 2,360 2,100 2,110 2,120 2,310 2,420 2,310
Series C 2,460 2,390 2,330 2,200 2,120 2,310 2,420 2,310
                   
Surat Basin total(f) Series A 3,820 3,540 3,190 3,140 3,140 3,140 3,140 3,140
Series B 3,820 3,920 3,580 3,290 3,290 3,500 3,900 4,110
Series C 3,820 3,950 3,810 3,390 3,290 3,500 3,900 4,110
(R) – Regional Council
(a)  Boundaries are based on the 2011 edition of the Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS).
(b)  Represents the number of non–resident workers on-shift for 30 June of the indicated year. Temporary peaks and falls in project workforces may occur in between these mid-year estimates for successive years.
(c)  There are no Series C or Series D projections for Maranoa (R) in this edition.
(d)  There are no Series C or Series D projections for Toowoomba (R) in this edition.
(e)  There is no Series D projection for Western Downs (R) in this edition.
(f)  There is no Series D projection for the Surat Basin in this edition. Surat Basin series totals are cumulative and take account of preceding series in each LGA.
 
Figures in this table have been rounded to the nearest 10; any internal discrepancies are due to rounding.
 
Explanatory notes
 
QGSO’s 2017 to 2023 non–resident population projections contain up to four different series, which represent a range of possible outcomes arising from the future development of resource projects and operations. Projections are based on information provided by industry regarding existing operations and future projects.
 
The four projection series are largely based on the status of projects in the environmental impact statement (EIS) process at the time of preparation (December 2016). The projections also include some projects outside the approvals process.
Series A projection is based on the number of non–resident workers on-shift who were engaged in existing resource operations and associated infrastructure activities in the area at June 2016. The projection takes into account future changes to those operational workforces as advised by resource company sources, as well as the estimated non-resident construction and operational workforces of Category A projects (i.e. those that had reached final investment decision (FID)) at the time of preparation.
Series B projection includes the Series A projection plus projected growth in the non-resident population arising from Category B projects (those that have an EIS approved but have yet to reach FID).
Series C projection includes the Series A and B projections, plus the projected growth in the non-resident population arising from Category C projects (those that have lodged an EIS, but have yet to proceed through to final approval).
Series D projection includes Series A, B and C projections, plus the projected growth in the non-resident population from Category D projects (those that have yet to publish an EIS, including projects that have lodged an initial advice statement (IAS) as well as projects that have yet to begin the approvals process).
Where FID for an approved project has been delayed indefinitely, or in circumstances where it is not possible to give consideration to indicative workforce data or sequencing, the project is designated as Category E and is not included in any of the four projection series. Other projects that are dependent on Category E projects in order to commence are also designated as Category E, and excluded from consideration.
See Surat Basin non–resident population projections, 2017 to 2023 for further detail on methodology, caveats, and a full list of existing operations and future projects included in each projection series.
 
Users of these projections should note that there is a degree of uncertainty about the likelihood of these projects proceeding as assumed, and as such the projections should be regarded as being indicative scenarios rather than probabilistic predictions. QGSO does not advocate any one of these four projection series as being the most likely or favoured outcome.
 
For further information please visit the QGSO website at www.qgso.qld.gov.au.
 
Source: Queensland Government Statistician's Office, Queensland Treasury, Non–resident population projections, 2017 to 2023
 
Copyright:  The State of Queensland (Queensland Treasury) 2017
 
Attribution: 
You are free to copy, communicate and adapt the work, as long as you attribute the authors.  This document is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International licence.



http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
To attribute these estimates, cite Queensland Government Statistician's Office, Queensland Treasury, Non–resident population projections, 2017 to 2023
 
Disclaimer: 
All data and information in this report are believed to be accurate and have come from sources believed to be reliable. 
However, Queensland Treasury does not guarantee or represent that the data and the information are accurate, up to date or complete, and disclaims liability for all claims, losses, damages or costs of whatever nature and howsoever occurring, arising as a result of relying on the data and information, regardless of the form of action, whether in contract, tort (including negligence), breach of statutory duty or otherwise.
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Last reviewed 6 March 2017