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Queensland Government population projections: Frequently asked questions

 

Why are three projection series (low, medium, high) produced?

The Queensland Government population projections should not be interpreted as precise point-estimate forecasts or predictions. Rather, they show the outcomes of applying a set of assumptions about the future to a base population. Their accuracy therefore depends on the extent to which those assumptions eventuate.

The population projections are based on trends and assumptions relating to fertility, mortality, migration, future housing supply and historical population patterns. Because future levels of fertility, mortality, migration and dwelling stock are uncertain, and historical trends may not continue, there is inherent uncertainty in projecting future population.

To account for uncertainty in these components of population change and housing supply, three projection series (low, medium and high) have been developed to illustrate a range of possible future outcomes.

Each of the low, medium and high series reflects a unique combination of assumptions about demographic components and other factors impacting population change and are one of many possible scenarios for future population change in Queensland and its sub-state regions.

Users should exercise caution when interpreting and using population projections, particularly at the sub-state level, where uncertainty is greater. Uncertainty in future population change also increases the further the projections extend from the base year. Users are advised to consider the assumptions underpinning each series, as outlined in the Queensland Government population projections: Methodology and assumptions report.

What geographies are population projections produced for?

The 2025 edition of the Queensland Government population projections includes projections of the usual resident population by age and sex across different geographical levels within Queensland.

Data are released for the following geographic boundaries:

  • the State of Queensland
  • Greater Brisbane Greater Capital City Statistical Area (GCCSA)
  • statistical areas level 4 (SA4)
  • statistical areas level 2 (SA2)
  • local government areas (LGA).

The geographical boundaries are sourced from Edition 3 of the Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS), defined by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The 2021 version of boundaries for LGAs is used.

Maps of individual regions under ASGS Edition 3 are available under Geographical boundaries on the Queensland Government Statistician’s Office website.

The 2025 edition population projections are available for all of the above listed geographies under the medium series, whereas low and high series population projections are available for the State of Queensland, Greater Brisbane GCCSA and the 10 remaining SA4s, and LGAs.

The 2025 edition uses the final rebased estimated resident population of 2021 as the base population, with projection horizons to 2071 for Queensland and 2046 for sub-state areas.

Why are different population projection models used for different geographical levels in Queensland?

Queensland’s state and sub-state population projections are generated in sequential stages, using several different models. The choice of methodology and techniques applied for different geographical areas and different geographical levels considered issues such as:

  • assumptions about the components of population change (fertility and mortality rates, and overseas, interstate and intrastate migration)
  • the principal determinants of population change (demand for housing versus supply of dwellings)
  • data reliability and availability
  • the rate of population change
  • a region’s share of overall state population.

The main drivers of population change, and the best ways to model them, vary across regions and geographical levels. For the State of Queensland, Greater Brisbane Greater Capital City Statistical Area and the 10 remaining SA4s, assumptions about demographic components are considered the main drivers of future population size, distribution and age structure.

At lower geographical levels, however, such as LGAs and SA2s, future population change is not modelled primarily as the result of demographic factors, as it is at higher geographical levels. Instead, it is considered to be driven mainly by future housing supply or housing demand:

  • In the case of future housing supply, population change is considered a function of available dwelling supply and occupancy constraints and anticipated consequent dwelling construction.
  • In the case of future housing demand, population change is informed by population trend-based models that reflect the demand for housing. Additional dwelling supply is not considered the chief limiting factor in population change.

Population projections for each SA2 have been developed using either of the two approaches above. Following this, projections for LGAs are derived from projections at the SA2 or lower geographical level.

For more information about the projection models used to generate projections for different geographical levels, see the Queensland Government population projections: Methodology and assumptions report.

Why are sub-state areas only projected to 2046, while Queensland is projected to 2071?

The uncertainty in future population change increases the further from the base year into the future. Population change in sub-state areas is much more uncertain, and more difficult to predict, than at the state level. As a consequence, while projections have been produced at the state level with a 50-year time horizon to 2071, projections at the sub-state level have been developed with a 25-year time horizon to 2046.

A key data source for producing projections is local government planning schemes and datasets. These are used to inform the spatial and temporal distribution of population change at the SA2 level. At the time of production, many local government planning schemes did not extend beyond 2046 and often there is no information on expected small-area spatial development patterns beyond this time frame. Planning schemes and data are subject to future change and review and may be different from that used to inform previous editions of the Queensland Government population projections.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics and Australian Government Centre for Population publish population projections for Queensland. Why does the Queensland Government also publish projections for Queensland?

The Australian Bureau of Statistics and the Australian Government Centre for Population publish projections for Queensland at the state level, as well as for Greater Brisbane Capital City Statistical Area and the rest of the state. However, there is also strong demand within the Queensland Government and the broader community for detailed projections for smaller geographical areas, including local government areas and statistical areas. To meet this need, the Queensland Government produces three projection series at the state level and consistent projections for sub-state regions.

Further, the Queensland Government Statistician’s Office collaborates with local government strategic planners to ensure that the most up-to-date and accurate dwelling supply information from local government planning schemes is incorporated into the projections at the small-area level, where relevant and possible. Estimated dwelling yields for some Priority Development Areas (PDAs) were also provided by Economic Development Queensland. PDAs are parcels of land in Queensland identified for accelerated development, with a focus on economic growth.

To reflect uncertainty in future population change, a range of scenarios is produced rather than a single projection series (see FAQ question Why are three projection series (low, medium, high) produced? above). To stay up to date with the latest population outcomes and trends in the available data, the Queensland Government has traditionally produced three scenarios twice in every five-year period.

Why are the 2025 edition projections different from the 2023 edition?

The 2025 and 2023 editions reflect different sets of underlying assumptions about future population change within Queensland and its sub-state regions.

While both the 2025 and 2023 editions are based on data sourced from the 2021 Census, the 2025 edition also incorporates additional and updated data and information from other sources that have become available since the assumptions underpinning the 2023 edition were made. These sources include fertility, mortality and migration data, in addition to updated dwelling and land use planning information.

Queensland’s population size and distribution were impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, including record net overseas migration after the opening of Australia’s international borders, which was unforeseen at the time the 2023 edition was produced. See FAQ question Do the 2025 edition projections account for the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic? below.

Apart from the demographic impacts of the pandemic on current and future population levels, another key difference is that the 2025 edition assumes a notably lower long-term total fertility rate (TFR). This reflects the decline in Queensland’s TFR in recent years, consistent with the broader Australian trend, which has fallen below the long-term level assumed in the 2023 medium series. As a result, the 2025 edition projections are slightly lower than those in the 2023 edition. In particular, population growth rates in some sub-state areas are projected to be lower than in previous editions.

The projected spatial and temporal distribution of population change for SA2s and LGAs is informed by anticipated dwelling supply from local government planning schemes and datasets. These schemes are subject to future change and review and may have been revised since similar information was used for the 2023 edition. New PDAs, introduced since the development of the 2023 edition, will also contribute to differences in the timing and distribution of population change over the projection horizon. 

Further, the rate at which the available dwelling supply is taken up in future is contingent upon economic conditions and decisions made by the business community and is subject to uncertainty.

Do the 2025 edition projections account for the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic?

The 2025 edition of the Queensland Government population projections incorporates the most up-to-date and relevant data available at the time of production and is intended to reflect the latest population outcomes and trends in the available data.

The World Health Organization declared the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) a worldwide pandemic on 
11 March 2020. Since early 2020, the pandemic, along with associated response measures and restrictions introduced by different levels of government in Australia and internationally, has affected population growth in Australia. Although most restrictions and associated health measures in Australia were eased progressively during 2022, impacts on population growth continued throughout 2025. The reopening of international borders led to record net overseas migration nationally, and in Queensland, in 2022–23. These levels have since moderated and are projected to moderate further before stabilising.

Queensland also experienced high levels of net interstate migration during the pandemic, reaching 40,223 persons in 2021–22, around twice the long-term average. Net interstate migration then moderated rapidly, falling to 21,595 persons in 2024–25. The 3,059 persons recorded in the subsequent September 2025 quarter (published 19 March 2026) was the lowest quarterly figure since 2015.

While past and current trends provide background to the possible demographic outlook for Queensland, there is uncertainty around how these trends will evolve over a 50-year projection horizon for Queensland and a 25-year projection horizon at the sub-state level. For an overview of recent population growth in Queensland, and how this has varied from historical trends since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020, see the Queensland Government population projections Background research paper.

 

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